So who will win the men’s World Cup?

What, if anything, can the recent Six Nations tournament tell us about the likely outcome of the forthcoming World Cup to be held on English soil since the hosting duties were shared across the UK in 1999?

Twickenham will host the final of the 2015 World Cup on Halloween 

Well, nothing seems to be the short answer when it comes to the betting market for the outright Rugby Union World Cup winner, with likes of Betfair amongst others pricing as many as six teams at under or on par with odds of 10/1. As things stand, New Zealand (perennial favourites of course) are a short-priced 6/4 to lift the trophy for the third time in their history. But this looks too short – and that likely means that value could be found elsewhere? It’s true that if you had to stake your life on the outcome, then the All Blacks would be your team of choice – but you wouldn’t be confident with the odds considering what the trophy has shown to us down the years.

It doesn’t seem that long ago, for example, that France seemingly caused the whole nation of New Zealand to ask where it was going wrong after Les Bleus heroically beat the Blacks at the semi-final stage back in 1999, 43-31 at Twickenham.

And the two times that the All Blacks have lifted the trophy have both been on home soil; New Zealand have never made it to a World Cup final in the northern hemisphere. Whether this is particularly relevant or not remains to be seen – but it certainly would make any value-seeking gambler think twice about those small favourite’s odds.  If interested, William Hill offers the best odds for Rugby Union World Cup betting.

Holders the All Blacks are hot favourites to win again

So what about the wider market?

Well, moving down the line it is the hosting nation England that are second favourites at a price of 10/3. And if the Six Nations can shed any light on this – then it’s surely that the host’s price is again too short? England will certainly be playing their hearts out in their own backyard, but the Six Nations showed English fans just how vulnerable they can be – particularly when the opposing side really starts throwing the ball around and playing in a more expansive, free-flowing style. The teams from the southern hemisphere are, arguably, better known for playing in this way than those from Europe who tend to bury the ball a little more. And it was Ireland’s expansive play that was the undoing of England in the home side’s 19-9 defeat of Stuart Lancaster’s men in Dublin on March 1st.

On this occasion, it became clear – in what would turn out to be the crunch match of the whole tournament – that England can be unlocked pretty quickly and with relative ease by the kind of blizzard of onslaught the Irish team were able to inflict on them.

The game had been expected to be very closely fought, but this wasn’t the way things panned out at all and if anything, the score-line flattered England in the end. Four penalties from the indomitable Jonathan Sexton along with a spectacular second-half try from Irish centre Robbie Henshaw created an unreachable deficit which properly reflected the gulf in quality between the two sides.

Simply put, the visitors were outplayed across the board. England began the contest in sluggish fashion and were continually second-best at the breakdown. They also had consistent problems dealing with the Irish high ball and by Sexton’s continual probing kicks from the hand.

England’s rally was too little far too late – and there’s nothing to suggest that a match between the two sides any time soon should be anything different. England seemed tactically naïve and too willing to roll-over. The match was largely won by half time.

All of this, then, leads us to believe that Ireland’s fifth favouritism at 9/1 to win the World Cup looks like better value than any of the sides we’ve looked at so far. But there’s a long way to go and it’s fair to say the Irish have been the serial disappointers in the seven World Cups we’ve seen to date. In fact, so far, no Irish team has managed to finish in the top four. So perhaps they’ll overcome their World Cup hoodoo – or perhaps it will be more of the same.

So what about third favourites South Africa, currently 4/1 shots to lift the trophy? Well the Springboks are always the dark horses of any World Cup tournament – and always incredibly competitive and tough to beat even when fielding weaker sides. But the current line-up is anything but weak.

Nevertheless, the Autumn internationals showed us that South Africa are vulnerable to the kind of doggedness that Wales showed in their 12-6 home win last November. This was Wales’ first win against any of the southern hemisphere’s big three in 23 attempts and a huge morale boost for Warren Gatland’s men.

The South Africans also lost 29-15 to Ireland in Dublin but managed to beat England 28-31 at Twickenham. These results prove the point that The Springboks are tactically vulnerable on European soil and again, their odds don’t look overly generous. Then again, South Africa have lifted this trophy twice and you can bet they’d love to do so again – particularly at Twickenham and they’re always more fiercely competitive in this competition than any other.

Fourth favourites Australia are currently 8/1 shots and look solid value for money. Like the Springboks, the Wallabies are always fiercely competitive and you write them off at your peril – even with a relatively weakened side as they arguably are at the moment. Last October’s Bledisloe Cup Test match against the All Blacks demonstrated once more how competitive the Aussies can be when they want to. The Wallabies were given virtually no chance before the game but went down by just one point in the end as New Zealand won 29–28 courtesy of a last-minute try in Queensland.

And then there’s simply the history; Australia have been there or thereabouts in most World Cups to date and have won two of them. English fans will also remember with relish, no doubt, just how close the Aussies came to winning on home soil back in 2003 – and how they’d love to reverse that particular defeat at Twickenham. No Australian side ever comes to England with a losing mentality and of all the teams in the competition with a realistic shout, they are one of two that look good value.

Jonny Wilkinson just tipped the scales in England’s favour in Australia in 2003

And that brings us neatly to the other value candidates in the market – France. Les Bleus are currently 16/1, six whole points better in the market than Wales at 10/1, to win the Wold Cup next October. And this just looks too generous. True, the French showing in the Six Nations was pretty dismal compared with the high standards they’ve set themselves over the years but there may have been good excuses for this. French coach Philippe Saint-Andre hasn’t settled on his starting halfback pairing and has tried 16 different combinations since taking charge after the last World Cup.

His side have also struggled to play with width – but history has shown us that it will be a different French side that turns up in England in the autumn. France are yet to win a World Cup, but have reached three finals and it’s risky business to underestimate them.

So if you’re for some real outside value – it’s Les Bleus or the Wallabies – take your pick.