Round 3 Preview & Predictions – Women’s Rugby World Cup 2014

Round 2 of the Women’s Rugby World Cup was a he|| of a ride! The biggest headline of course was Ireland’s defeat of the New Zealand Black Ferns. England, Canada,USA and Australia all recorded wins as expected over their opponents. The anticipation of Round 3 is palpable as seven teams enter this final round of pool matches with a chance at a semi-final place. 

Five of these teams are unbeaten with Canada, England and France having taken the maximum 10 points after two bonus point victories, while Ireland and Australia have eight as they failed to pick up a try bonus point in either of their wins. Ireland arguably has the easiest road as they will face Kazakhstan and unless there is a major upset, they should win and get a bonus point. For Australia, their goal will be to hand France their first loss but their only hope of moving on is to pick up both a try and losing bonus point against the Six Nations champions. Even if they achieve that it may not be good enough.

For England, Canada, Ireland, France and Australia if they get win, they will top their pool and progress to the semi-finals. Lose and any bonus point they can salvage could be crucial as well as the outcome of the Pool B match between New Zealand v USA, who both have six points.

Then the math really starts to kick in for those paying attention, we look to seedings for the semi-finals. If France and either Canada or England win then a victorious Ireland will be third seeds and it could well come down to point differential to determine the top two seeds. England currently has the best differential of the three nations after two rounds with +102 to France’s +78 and Canada’s +61. 

France are the only side currently topping a pool for whom a draw would be enough to guarantee top spot, as were Ireland to be held by Kazakhstan they could be overtaken by New Zealand or USA with a bonus point win. If Canada and England were to finish all square it also may not be enough to ensure England will retain top spot in Pool A. 

In that scenario were Canada to claim a try bonus point and England not then they would finish top. Twelve points, though, should be enough for England to claim the best runner-up spot as only a French side losing to Australia with two bonus points could match that tally.

New Zealand may be on the back foot after suffering only their second ever WRWC defeat, but it would be foolish to count them out of the semi-final mix and USA could face a backlash from a side determined not to return home without the trophy they have held since 1998.  The Black Ferns – and the Women’s Eagles for that matter – will be targeting a bonus point win to reach 11 points to bolster their hopes of claiming the best runner-up position. New Zealand have the third best point differential (+71) going into round three, behind only England and France.

The five other teams at WRWC 2014 may not be in semi-final contention after collecting no points from two matches, but there is still plenty for them to play for with Spain, Samoa, Wales, South Africa and Kazakhstan hoping to sneak into the play-offs for fifth to eighth places. 

Spain will meet Samoa in Pool A, while Wales and South Africa will be looking to score their first tries of WRWC 2014 when they meet for the second tournament in a row, the Women’s Springboks having won their pool encounter in England in 2010 only to lose in the play-off stages.

Order of Games, August 9th (all times CST)

Kazakhstan vs Ireland @ 6am
Samao vs Spain @ 8am
Canada vs England @ 8:45am
South Africa vs Wales @ 10am
USA vs New Zealand @ 11am
France vs Australia @ 1:45pm

We’ve put our formal predictions in place on Superbru, check those out here.