Women’s Rugby World Cup 2014: A Closer Look

The IRB’s press release detailing the “Route to Paris” for the 2014 WRWC was issued yesterday, and appears on YSC. However, as is the way press releases, they require careful reading – and tend to emphasise the positive a bit. So let’s take a close look at what will happen between now and 2014. First…

How will the qualification process work (probably)?

To begin with there will be 12 teams in Paris, and half of them have already qualified (as for 2010). Five of these teams also automatically qualified for the last World Cup – the only change is that for 2010 South Africa were give a free pass to the finals, whereas for 2014 Australia pre-qualify:

Automatic qualifiers (and likely seeding):
1. New Zealand (holders)
2. England (2010 runners-up)
3. Australia (2010 third place)
4. France (host)
5. USA (2010 5th)
6. Canada (2010 6th)

Other qualifiers:
The IRB release is a bit vague on this in places, but it would seem that
7. Asian 15s champions 2013 will qualify.
This will probably be Kazakhstan again as no-one in Asia is a realistic threat to them – though China have the potential to run them close if they decide to back 15-a-side rugby

8. Winner of a 2013 African qualifier.
This will be between South Africa and 2013 Elgon Cup winner (ie. Kenya or Uganda). This is a great step forward for East African rugby, which was excluded from the 2010 World Cup. However, if Kenya or Uganda are to seriously challenge South Africa they must be given the chance to play teams from outside their region before the big game, otherwise it risks being a walkover.

9 & 10. Best two Six Nations teams (other than France or England).
In practice this will almost certainly be Ireland and Wales. Qualification will be based on 2012 and 2013 Six Nations combined and, while Italy and Scotland may have the occasional success, it is unlikely they will maintain this over two years. 

11 &  12. Euro/Oceania qualification winners
The remaining two Six Nations teams will play-off against other European nations and one team from Oceania. Exactly how THAT will work is not covered – but a best guess is that it will be the same, or very similar, format to the 2010 European qualifier. That consisted of two pools, with the pool winners qualifying. What we do know is that the Six Nations teams will almost certainly be seeded 1 and 2, Spain will be seeded 3, while other seedings will be based on the results of the European Cup Pool B tournament to be played in Sweden later this year. The eighth team will come from the Pacific – almost certainly Samoa as no other island has played 15s rugby for some years.

If the format does repeat 2010 the big battle over the next year or so will be to avoid Spain’s pool as, based on recent form, The Lions should be comfortably the strongest team of the eight. Whoever finishes 5th in the Six Nations (and reaches the European Cup B final) should avoid Spain, whoever finishes 6th (or misses the final) will almost certainly meet them. The eight teams involved will probably be…

• Six Nations team (probably Italy)
• Six Nations team (probably Scotland)
• Spain
• Netherlands
• Russia
• Sweden
• Finland
• Pacific team (probably Samoa) 

A major step forward for women’s rugby?

To have the qualification process laid out in this level of detail so far ahead is a real breakthrough – four years ago it was a bit fractured and (in some regions) almost seemingly last minute. IRB are taking the game seriously and everyone now knows exactly where they stand.

But, in terms of participation, is it the big step being claimed? Not really, to be honest. The process is almost identical to that for 2010, and (unless more teams enter from Asia than did for 2010) the number of teams taking part looks like rising by exactly one – Africa has two more entrants (Uganda and Kenya), while Europe has one less (no Germany or Belgium, but Finland compete for the first time). Otherwise its the same.

There is still plenty of room for improvement. While the inclusion of the East Africans is great to see, and the door is not full shut on the rest of the Pacific aside from Samoa, the IRB have again failed to provide Caribbean and South American nations with any path to the finals. Giving the likes of Trinidad the carrot of a game against the USA or Canada would be a real boost to 15s rugby in the region – but not for another four years at least. And when the dust settles, at least 10 of the 12 in Paris will be almost certainly the same as in 2010 – Spain should replace Sweden, and Italy might fill Scotland’s place (the upcoming Six Nations game between these teams will now be full of tension!). Other than that…

The reason is that fifteens rugby is not advancing anything like as much as sevens. The number of national teams entering tournaments is not growing (indeed in Europe it is shrinking). Many nations aspire to play 15s rugby, but it remains much more expensive to organise. The Sevens revolution may change this for 2018, but for 2014 its steady as she goes.